You Are Not the Exception: Base Rate Neglect and the Executive Confidence Trap
The historical success rate for this type of initiative is 15%. Your team believes you'll beat it because of factors X, Y, and Z. So did every other team that failed. I'm not saying you're wrong — I'm saying you need to prove your deviation from the base rate before you fund it.
Full Article Coming Soon
This article is being produced through CogentCast — the StackFast content pipeline. The full piece will include deep analysis, frameworks, and actionable takeaways from Soren Blackwell.
In the meantime, you can explore this topic directly with Soren's Digital Twin.
Stress-Test My DecisionWant a site like this?
FractWin Presence — professional website, SEO-optimized blog, automated content pipeline, growing audience.
Build your presence → Starting at $97/moThis site is powered by FractWin Presence.
More from Soren Blackwell
The Room Was Too Excited: Why Consensus Is a Signal, Not a Comfort
When everyone agrees quickly, something has been overlooked. Unanimous enthusiasm without adversarial testing is the most dangerous consensus in a boardroom. Here's how to pressure-test it.
The Pre-Mortem Nobody Wants to Run: How to Surface Second-Order Failures Before They Arrive
It's 18 months from now and this initiative has failed catastrophically. What happened? That question — asked sincerely, before any resources are committed — surfaces risks that no amount of forward-looking optimism will reveal. Here's the exact pre-mortem protocol I run and why the second-order effects are where the real damage hides.
